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Photo: UN Climate Change - Kamran Guliyev
COP29 is well under way in Baku, Azerbaijan. On Thursday 14th November, the reality of the climate crisis was laid bare as analysis by Climate Action Tracker found that current policies would mean a median temperature rise of 2.7C by 2100. As evidenced in recent years, incremental changes in temperature lead to dramatic damage. The goal of the COP meetings is to create an actionable roadmap, but there’s a greater desire to ensure these discussions lead to real change.
What have been the discussion points?
Financing the transition has been at the core of conversation. This is urgent, as the 2009 agreement for developed countries to contribute $100 billion annually, fulfilled only in 2022, expires this year. By 2030, poorer nations are projected to need $1 trillion annually from external sources to address escalating climate costs. Around half is expected to come from public funds, provided by developed countries, while the source of the remaining half still requires clarity. Lord Stern, from the Grantham Research Institute for Climate, said: “It’s more expensive the longer you wait. This $1tn by 2030 is absolutely possible for rich countries to achieve, but it does entail real commitment and moving quickly.”
A new analysis by Global Witness, finds that the combined profits of oil and gas producers would cover the entire annual bill for damage from climate breakdown. However, with this an unlikely solution, COP29 members have to find a different strategy. The World Bank, and a number of other lenders, announced plans to increase finance to low and middle-income countries to $120billion by 2030. This represents a 60% increase in 2023 funding levels. However, tensions remain. The Guardian reported on Thursday, that climate finance negotiations hit a snag over document length, expanding from 9 to 34 pages after developing countries demanded comprehensive representation. This added complexity could slow action, a risk not lost on COP29 delegates.
The recent U.S. election of Donald Trump, who has expressed intentions to curb climate efforts, has cast further uncertainty over international climate finance. As the largest shareholder in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the U.S. plays a critical role in funding developing nations' climate resilience efforts. IMF head, Kristalina Georgieva, and World Bank President Ajay Banga, confirmed they would work with the new administration despite its climate stance. Trump’s presidency could potentially hinder US offshore wind projects, with renewable energy giants RWE and Siemens Energy warning of possible delays. Representatives from small island nations, who are disproportionately affected, voiced concerns over Trump’s election, fearing its impact on their climate-sensitive survival. Lutero, Samoa’s UN representative, emphasised “Our survival is very much at risk.”
A Reality Check
The conference laid bare the current climate reality. UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, characterised 2024 as “a masterclass in climate destruction,” while maintaining that “there is every reason to hope”. Fossil fuel emissions are projected to be almost 8% higher in 2024 than in 2015, the year the Paris climate agreement was signed. Emissions from coal, oil, and gas are expected to rise by 0.8% in 2024. With emissions needing to fall by 43% by 2030 to stay within the 1.5°C target, Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President, issued a reminder: “History will judge us by our actions, not by our words.”
What did Britain have to say?
Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has put Britain on an ambitious pathway. In his speech, he described the pledge as not just about Britain fulfilling its role, but also about creating opportunities, and enhancing security. He outlined two possible pathways, one of inaction and delay, and another of facing today’s challenges and securing tomorrow’s opportunities. He emphasised that this proactive path would lead to national security, energy independence, and economic stability, all essential for improving living standards. He stressed the importance of putting climate security at the forefront and framed this as a unique chance to attract investment to the UK by leading global climate action.
What now?
At Sustainable Times, I have the privilege of witnessing the future of sustainable business daily. The companies we work with are each unique, yet all share a commitment to innovation, placing people and the planet at the heart of their mission. While gatherings like COP serve as stark reminders of the work ahead, I’m encouraged by Guterres' reminder to hold space for hope. The funds to address this crisis exist, our challenge is directing them effectively.
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